Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan meet

Within the past week or so, Vartan Oskanian and Elmar Mammadyarov have been meeting in London and discussing the agenda for the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to meet in France in February.  Rumors are that the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh is just around the corner.  Yet to what extent can these presidents actually create a peaceful resolution to the conflict? 

There have been various Armenian as well as international media sources which have said that there is talk that there will be a referendum held in Karabakh in 10-15 years and the people of NK will determine their status.  In addition, the Armenian troops will be withdrawn and international peacekeeping troops will come in to “keep the peace.”  This is basically the gist of it at this point.  So let’s say the presidents sign an agreement which outlines such a resolution.  To what extent will the societies uphold this resolution? 

This is how I see it.  The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan can sign a treaty that outlines a specific plan to “lead to peace.”  However, there are some major issues which need to be tackled domestically in each country.  Most importantly, the stereotypes and prejudices that Armenians, Karabakhtsis and Azeris have about one another need to be tackled in order to be able to live as neighbouring countries.  What can this treaty do in order to conquer this issue?  The civil society in the respective countries and disputed territories need to take action and be included in this peacemaking process.  In the end, it is the people who will be living next door to each other and having contact with one another – especially in Nagorno Karabakh – and this is where the peaceful solution will be most important in its implementation process. 

Sure, the peacekeeping troops can be brought in and “maintain the peace.”  However, need I remind you that we all are too familiar about the recent history of these peacekeeping troops and how they have “maintained the peace.”  In Rwanda, the UN “blue berets” watched the genocide happen and then left.  I do not even need to mention the Balkans and the events that took place there.

And what about the Diaspora?  They are surely to have some say about the resolution.  Diasporan Armenians tend to be a little less compromising in regards to the land issue.  What will their reaction be if Nagorno-Karabakh is not given its independence?  It is most improbable that this will be the immediate resolution of the conflict at this point in time.  In return, how will the domestic situation in Armenia be influenced by this?  

Then on top of this all, there are also talks that the border between Turkey and Armenia will be reopened sooner or later.  Undoubtedly, Armenia’s conflicts with its neighbours are interconnected with one another and will surely influence the final outcome.  But I believe the most important question is regarding the Armenian people – whether in the homeland or in the Diaspora—if they are not in agreement with the terms of the resolution, how will this “peaceful resolution” come about?  

 

In the meantime, here are some recent articles which might be of interest regarding the recent talks Karabakh conflict and the resolution.

HETQ Online  http://www.hetq.am/eng/politics/0601-aliyev.html

http://www.hetq.am/eng/politics/0601-mask.html